The odds of a government shutdown in the United States taking place before Saturday, February 14, have surged to 85%. This rise has occurred amid a sustained downward trend in Bitcoin and the overall crypto market, with total market capitalization currently at $2.3 trillion, down 1.8%.
In response to this situation in the crypto industry, the Fear and Greed Index slipped to 9 from a previous peak of 10. This record has raised concerns among individuals who point to the likelihood that BTC’s price will decline further, following its recent fall below the $70,000 threshold during the latest partial government shutdown.
Several individuals speculate on a government shutdown soon amid increased financial tensions
Just recently, the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, showed that several traders anticipated an 85% chance of a government shutdown before Saturday. This figure demonstrates a substantial increase from a previous record of 66% amid intensified financial tensions.
In attempts to explain this situation, analysts argued that these shutdown concerns stem directly from expiring federal funding. Considering this argument, market sentiment suggests growing skepticism that lawmakers will strike a deal before the set deadline. Consequently, sources alleged that the outlook for a substantive short-term funding bill is pessimistic.
On the other hand, data from Polymarket showed that several traders were doubtful that Congress would pass any legislation this week. Notably, this uncertainty is fueling a wider market sell-off. At the same time, analysts noted that Bitcoin has hit a roadblock amid investor shyness toward riskier digital assets.
On the Social media platform X, analysts weighed in on Bitcoin’s fate as the broader digital asset market remained under pressure. One analyst, with the username “The Hunter”, warned that the recent downward trend could worsen, pointing to prices near $67,000 for BTC, $1,950 for Ethereum, and $81 for Solana.
To further illustrate the intensity of the situation, the analysts asserted that BTC’s price would continue to decline sharply to a record low below $50,000 if selling pressure persists.
Even so, Crypto investor & NFT enthusiast Axel Bitblaze offered a more optimistic perspective, characterizing Bitcoin’s current situation as similar to what was observed in 2024 before experiencing a significant upswing.
Afterwards, he predicted that the cryptocurrency could maintain a wider range of about $60,000 to $80,000 for the time being, experiencing brief surges followed by quick crashes.
Bitblaze also suggested that market volatility might create challenging conditions for both buyers and sellers, preventing a swift recovery.
The fate of Bitcoin remains a key concern in the crypto market
Regarding Bitblaze’s speculations on the crypto market recovery, sources said the crypto investor also dismissed the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000, despite having forecast a smooth V-shaped recovery.
When reporters reached out to him to clarify his argument, Bitblaze deemed this potential decline as a slow drop that drains trader sentiment before settling into a stable base.
Meanwhile, amid the growing likelihood of a shutdown, analysts found that Bitcoin’s technical structure remains fragile amid selling pressure. To support this claim, they noted that the overall trend reversed to the downside after failing to break the $95,000–$100,000 resistance area earlier in 2026.
In addition, the analysts highlighted a breakdown in the cryptocurrency’s price, which fell below the established $85k–$90k consolidation range. This breakdown accelerated the downward trend toward the $60,000–$70,000 support level.
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