If Bitcoin Doesn’t Move Soon, the Next Move Could Matter More

After a positive start to the year, Bitcoin’s upside momentum has taken a noticeable correction over the past two days. BTC attempted a break above the decisive level of $95K on January 14th but has since seen six consecutive red days, pulling back around 7% since the local high of $97,900. 

Approximately $100 billion has been wiped out from the total crypto market cap across the last 48 hours. The altcoin marketcap, measured by the TOTAL2 excluding stablecoin chart, also experienced declines of roughly 3.5% over the same period. 

After failing to reclaim the $95K level on the weekly timeframe, BTC is now back within the consolidation range it’s been in since mid November. Should downside pressure accelerate, attention shifts to key support levels that need to hold to preserve the broader long-term market structure. 

What Caused the Selloff? 

The selloff was largely triggered by macro uncertainties around Trump’s renewed push to annex the arctic island of Greenland coupled with threats of broad tariffs on eight European countries until what he described as a complete and total purchase is negotiated. While these developments remain highly speculative and politically charged, such headlines increase uncertainty around global trade tensions and diplomacy. 

As a result, investors have moved to de-risk their portfolios, rotating out of assets like BTC in favor of safer positioning. This risk-off rotation is reflected in the strong outperformance of commodities like gold and silver, which are currently trading at all-time highs and have gained 9.59% and 31% YTD, respectively. 

Key Levels to Watch 

The first key level for BTC to hold and where many traders potentially could position themselves for a bounce opportunity is at the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This currently sits at $90,400 and is in confluence with an ascending trendline that dates back to the lows of $80.5K recorded in November last year. 

Beyond the 50-day SMA, attention shifts to the yearly open near $87.5K, which aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. Just below this, the Fibonacci golden pocket (~$86K) represents a key zone that needs to hold to preserve the broader consolidation structure. 

What Could Confirm the Next Move

Beyond price levels, confirmation of the next directional move will require a pickup in volume. Aggregated daily exchange volume has tapered off since January 16th, signaling reduced conviction behind the recent price action. The diminishing volume suggests that we are seeing a market that is currently correcting on thinning liquidity rather than strong directional intent. Therefore, for any sustained trend, up or down, volume needs to expand, as low volume moves tend to be fragile and prone to reversals rather than continuation.  

Looking ahead, institutional participation and activity could be a key variable to watch. With U.S. markets closed yesterday, BTC spot ETF flows in the coming week will provide a clearer insight into whether institutional demand can offset the recent selling pressure or amplify it. Ultimately, the current backdrop largely hinges upon broader macro developments. As geopolitical rhetoric and trade-related uncertainties continue to shape risk appetite, BTC’s next move is likely to be driven as much by macro signals as by technical levels, making the coming week particularly pivotal for market direction.