WTI Price Forecast: Slips below $83.00, fresh low since late August amid Iran peace hopes

• WTI extends its weakening trend for the second straight day amid hopes for Iran diplomacy.
• Mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks could help limit deeper losses for the black liquid.
• A breakdown below the 200-day SMA and the 50% Fibo. backs the case for further downfall.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts heavy selling for the second consecutive day and slips below the $84.00 mark, hitting a fresh low since late August during the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Hopes of a US-Iran peace deal turn out to be a key factor weighing on the black liquid and back the case for an extension of the recent sharp retracement slide from levels just above the $104.00 mark, or the highest since May 18, touched last month.

US President Donald Trump said that there is positive momentum towards ending the war on Iran, and that a resumption of strikes is quite unlikely, declaring the conflict effectively over, fueling optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war. This, in turn, is seen exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, the geopolitical risk remains in play as Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, dismissed reports of active negotiations as fake news and reiterated that Washington must accept Tehran's seven conditions to end the conflict. Apart from this, a weak US Dollar (USD) could lend some support to the commodity as traders now look to the release of the US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus.

From a technical perspective, an intraday breakdown below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $85.48 could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, momentum indicators reinforce the downside tone, with the Relative Strength Index hovering near the oversold territory, around 33, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) expanding further in negative territory, suggesting that sellers remain in control. Meanwhile, the next relevant support is seen at the 61.8% retracement near $81.11, with further cushions at the 78.6% level around $74.89 and the prior swing low zone near $66.96, where a deeper pullback could attempt to stabilize the broader uptrend.

On the topside, the initial barrier is aligned at the 50% retracement, near $85.48, followed closely by the 200-day SMA at $86.31. A stronger supply zone emerges near the 38.2% retracement at $89.85 and extends toward the 23.6% level at $95.26 and the recent cycle high around $104.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI daily chart