Economists Agree: 2026 Oil price forecasts lowered as Strait of Hormuz shipping improves – Reuters poll
According to a Reuters poll published on Tuesday, analysts have lowered their 2026 Oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually improves, easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.
The poll, which surveyed 31 economists and analysts, showed Brent crude is expected to average $84.50 per barrel in 2026, down from the $90.44 forecast made in May. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is expected to average $79.49 per barrel, compared with $84.63 projected last month.
On average, they expect Brent to average about $84 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before falling to around $79 in the fourth quarter and declining to the mid-$70s by the middle of 2027.
According to the poll, global Oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to slow to roughly 1.0 million to 2.0 million barrels per day. Analysts said demand has softened due to weaker consumption in China, the world's largest oil importer.
At the time of writing, WTI trades around $70.80, back near its March lows after fully unwinding its US-Iran war rally.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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