British Pound is flatlined as US jobs strength, election risks loom

• GBP/USD edges 0.10% higher despite upbeat US labour market data.
• US job openings reach 7.5 million as Factory Orders jump 1.8%.
• BoE rate hike expectations support Sterling ahead of US midterm elections.

The Pound Sterling steadies against the US Dollar, up a modest 0.10%, as investors await the results of the US midterm elections. Factory Data in the US and a softer US JOLTS report boosted the Greenback, trimming its earlier losses. The GBP/USD trades at around 1.3420.

GBP/USD steadies as stronger US data, geopolitical uncertainty limit gains

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics revealed that the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September showed job openings rose from 7.19 million to 7.5 million, up 4.5% from 4.3%. The report showed that the hire rate was 3.4%, up from 3.3%, while total separations were unchanged at 3.3%.

The report was positive as the rise in job vacancies was followed by an increase in hiring. Meanwhile, Factory Orders rose from 0.3% to 1.8% MoM in September, revealed the US Census Bureau.

Geopolitics are also playing their role, capping GBP/USD advance amid risks of an escalation. Although Al Araby reported that a draft of an MOU was approved by Washington and Tehran, Iran denied those claims, with IRIB revealing that it rejects reports that it’s close to a deal with the US.

Eyes turn to the US midterm elections. According to Polymarket data, the Democrats have a 95% chance of controlling the House of Representatives and a 78% chance of securing a majority in the US Senate. This keeps investors nervous about the outcome and the White House's response to the results.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against six currencies, is flat at 101.81.

In the UK, investors are bracing for the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision this Thursday. The BoE is expected to increase interest rates for the first time since August 2023. For 2027, money markets see three more rate hikes, according to Prime Terminal data.

What’s up next in the docket

The UK schedule is absent. In the US, traders' attention would be on the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for October.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3412. The pair holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot trades above the latest reading of the 50/100/200-day simple moving average cluster at 1.3371 and the nearer rising support trend line around 1.3360, suggesting underlying demand on dips. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 58.5 stays in positive territory but shy of overbought, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive while not yet stretched.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen near the confluence of descending trend-line reactions, with the latest rejected levels at 1.3508 and 1.3544, ahead of a higher barrier from the more recent support trend-line break at 1.3606. On the downside, initial support is now defined by the reclaimed moving average band around 1.3371, reinforced by the rising structural trend line at 1.3360, and a sustained hold above these levels would keep the bullish bias intact.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)