Indian Rupee: RBI measures support INR against US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Santosh Ejanthkar and Tanmay Purohit highlight that USD/INR fell by more than 1% after the RBI unveiled a broad FX-support package, including a dedicated oil import window and tighter restrictions on corporate hedging. They expect an initial INR rebound and lower forward premiums, but caution that the medium-term outlook will depend on oil prices, portfolio flows and broader US Dollar trends.

FX-support package underpins INR near term

"RBI surprise policy measures deflate USD/INR 1.2%."

"In EM Asia, the INR rallied over 1% to 95.58/USD this morning following a broad set of FX-support measures announced by the RBI over the weekend, including the reintroduction of a dedicated oil import window, tighter restrictions on corporate hedging activity, limits on uncovered FX transactions, a ban on rebooking cancelled derivatives and fresh OMO bond sales."

"Together, these steps signal a more proactive defence of the INR and complement the RBI’s recent shift toward a calibrated tightening stance."

"While we expect an initial INR bounce and lower forward premiums as structural dollar demand eases, the medium-term outlook will remain driven by oil prices, portfolio flows and broader USD trends."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)