USD/CHF softens to near 0.7950 as Trump's tariff threats drive safe-haven demand for Swiss Franc
- USD/CHF weakens to near 0.7960 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Trump’s tariff threats have prompted the so-called "Sell America" trade.
- Traders brace for the Swiss December Producer and Import Prices data and SNB’s Schlegel speech.
The USD/CHF pair trades in the negative territory for the third consecutive day around 0.7960 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthens against the Greenback as US President Donald Trump's tariff threats spark safe-haven demand.
Trump said on Saturday that he would impose 10% tariffs on February 1 on goods from Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. It would rise to 25% if an agreement is not reached by June 1. Threats from the US towards the European Union over the future of Greenland triggered the so-called "Sell America" trade, which exerted some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) across the board.
“Investors were dumping dollar assets on fears of prolonged uncertainty, strained alliances, a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership, potential retaliation and an acceleration of de-dollarization trends," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney.
Traders will keep an eye on the Swiss Producer and Import Prices for December later on Tuesday, along with the speech from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel. Meanwhile, any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainty could boost the Swiss Franc, as it is considered a safe-haven currency.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Recommended Articles
