SpaceX Surpasses $2.5 Trillion, Exceeding Crypto Market; Will SPCX Stock Price Rise Further?

TradingKey - SpaceX rises over 40% for three consecutive trading days; can it break $300 in the coming month?

On June 16, Eastern Time, Elon Musk's SpaceX extended its rally, breaking through the $200 mark in one fell swoop. In pre-market trading, SpaceX surged nearly 11%, temporarily trading at $213.

SpaceX stock price chart, Source: TradingView

Yesterday, SpaceX shares surged nearly 20%, pushing its market capitalization above $2.5 trillion, surpassing the entire cryptocurrency market's total cap of $2.27 trillion. Since its listing, SpaceX has risen for three consecutive days, accumulating a gain of over 40% from its first-day opening price of $150. However, will SPCX's stock price continue to rise?

In this IPO subscription, Musk deliberately reserved 20% to 25% of the shares for retail investors, resulting in extremely high conviction among retail market participants and exceptionally strong FOMO sentiment. Furthermore, with the successive launch of US stock option contracts and Wall Street's rapid introduction of products such as 2x leveraged long ETFs, the speculative sentiment of short-term capital is unlikely to be dampened in the near term.

In addition, to cope with this epic mega-cap listing, major index providers had previously collectively revised their rules. Nasdaq allows SpaceX to be fast-tracked into the Nasdaq 100 Index after 15 trading days, while FTSE Russell has adopted an even faster 5-trading-day fast track. This means that over the next one to two weeks, trillions of dollars in global passive funds and ETFs tracking these benchmarks must deploy actual cash to 'force-buy' SPCX in the open market. This will help absorb profit-taking sell-offs and provide strong underlying buying support for the stock, potentially challenging the psychological $300 mark in the short term.

However, SpaceX may enter a pullback phase over the coming month. As index fund buying winds down and positive news is fully priced in, the stock faces a very high probability of technical pullbacks and volatility. SpaceX might retest the first-day high-volume trading zone of $150 to $165 to digest its sky-high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 130x.

Three months from now, SpaceX will release its first earnings report on September 2, marking its first fundamental midterm exam since listing. At that time, Starlink's actual global user growth data and xAI's capital expenditures will be disclosed for the first time, serving as a watershed moment that determines whether the stock has 'staying power' or if 'all the good news has run its course'. If the earnings meet expectations, SPCX's stock price will likely remain elevated or even strengthen. However, if they fall short, the stock could potentially drop below its IPO price of $135.