What Happens to Social Security as More Workers Leave the U.S.?

According to the nonpartisan Brookings Institution, as many as 295,000 Americans left the U.S. last year to settle in other countries. In January 2026, Kristi Noem, then Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, announced that nearly 3 million non-residents were deported during President Donald Trump's first year back in office. At the same time, a Cato Institute analysis shows that legal immigration has also fallen, with 132,000 fewer people moving into the U.S. per month.

Regardless of your political leanings or how you feel about foreigners working in the U.S., everything -- from the well-being of local economies to the Social Security trust fund -- will be affected by the outflow of working-age adults. Here's what happens to Social Security when there are more people moving out of the U.S. than there are moving in.

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A system with too little support

Given the recent exodus of workers, fewer people are paying into Social Security, which puts an extra strain on an already strained system.

In terms of the number of foreigners leaving, data from the American Immigration Council underscores that most public programs, such as Social Security and Medicaid, are limited to U.S. citizens and specific groups of legal immigrants. Despite that, undocumented immigrants paid $26.2 billion into the Social Security trust fund in 2023 alone, and that loss is expected to add to Social Security's woes.

There were already serious concerns about Social Security before more people began to leave. According to a June 9, 2026, announcement by the Social Security Administration (SSA), the trust fund that millions of Americans depend on to keep their benefits flowing is set to run dry by the end of 2033. Whether the rapidly shrinking workforce pushes that date forward or not, a lack of working-age adults in the country exacerbates the program's long-run financing picture.

A shrinking population

Between 1975 and 2008, there were approximately 3.2 to 3.4 workers for each retiree receiving Social Security benefits. However, as Americans began having fewer children, the ratio has consistently declined. By 2013, there were only 2.8 workers paying into the system for each retiree receiving benefits.

Countries like the U.S. need a growing population to sustain economic growth. An expanding workforce broadens the consumer market, increases demand for goods and services, and, yes, contributes to Social Security. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the birthrate for American-born women will hold steady at 1.56 births per woman between 2025 and 2055, falling short of the 2.1 births needed to sustain growth. The more people who leave the U.S., the fewer workers there will be to pay Social Security taxes.

While there's nothing Congress can do about the birthrate, it's clear that legislators will have their jobs cut out for them when they get down to working on a solution to the trust fund issue. Given that the average worker plans for their full Social Security check when preparing for retirement, a solution can't come soon enough.

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