SpaceX Listing Countdown: IPO Priced at $135, Prediction Markets Feverishly Bet on $150-$200 Opening

TradingKey - SpaceX's official trading start time has been delayed by half an hour, as prediction markets bet on a high opening for SPCX on its first day, with an opening price range of $150-$200.

On June 12, Eastern Time, Elon Musk's space technology company SpaceX (SPCX) is set to debut on the Nasdaq. In the pre-market session, prediction markets are betting heavily on its opening price. According to data from Polymarket, the probability of SpaceX opening between $150 and $200 has surged by over 33%, currently reaching 83%.

User bets on SpaceX's opening price, Source: Polymarket

Yesterday, after the market close, SpaceX officially confirmed its IPO price at $135 per share, with a valuation reaching $1.75 trillion to $1.78 trillion, breaking Saudi Aramco's record to become the largest IPO in history. However, judging from current market reactions, the official price may still be too conservative.

According to Binance and Hyperliquid 's market data, SpaceX perpetual contracts reached a high of $185 today and are currently hovering around $177, 30%-37% higher than the official pricing. Additionally, the shadow market indicates a premium of at least 35% for SpaceX shares, with derivatives from online broker IG International pointing to a market capitalization of $2.4 trillion, over 35% higher than the $1.77 trillion valuation based on the IPO price.

SpaceX perpetual contract prices, Source: TradingView

For a 'historic behemoth' like SpaceX, which is raising $75 billion, underwriters need to manually adjust the matching pool after the opening, potentially delaying the first trade by about half an hour, similar to the debuts of Meta and Alibaba. Thus, the opening price may not flash at exactly 9:30 AM ET. According to Investing.com, SpaceX IPO quotes will begin at 9:50 AM ET, with trading eligibility starting at 10:00 AM ET.