US-Iran Peace Agreement ‘Never So Close to Completion.’ But Nuclear Talks Will Be Delayed 60 Days to Start After Preliminary Agreement Reached

TradingKey - According to multiple sources, the U.S.-Iran peace agreement has entered its final sprint. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on social media platform X on Friday that both sides have agreed on a final peace agreement text, noting that "peace has never been closer than it is today."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also stated on the X platform that the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding is "closer than ever to completion" and that the media should avoid speculating on the contents of the agreement, as all details will be shared with the public at the appropriate time.

U.S. media, citing government officials, reported an 80%-85% probability that the U.S.-Iran agreement will be signed. However, a senior U.S. official remarked that the U.S. is not 100% certain about the final signing, citing Iran’s highly complex system and internal divisions.

Although various reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran are very close to reaching an agreement, conflicting reports have emerged. According to Iran’s Fars News Agency, a source close to the Iranian negotiating team stated on the 12th that claims regarding Iran and the U.S. signing an agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, this Sunday are untrue. Previously, Bloomberg, citing senior U.S. officials, reported that both sides hoped to utilize next week’s G7 summit for the signing, with a Memorandum of Understanding potentially being signed as early as this Sunday (the 14th) in Geneva.

Technical negotiations will commence for 60 days following the signing of the preliminary agreement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) will be signed and published immediately upon the conclusion of the final stage of negotiations, with the first phase to be signed remotely and electronically, which "could happen in the coming days." Araghchi disclosed on a television program that the current negotiating framework is split into two stages: the first phase focuses on ending conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to restore regional stability, while formal negotiations on the critical nuclear issue will only begin in the second stage. Araghchi emphasized that Tehran remains highly vigilant regarding the U.S.'s commitment to the agreement and will guard against non-compliance through strict "phased arrangements and rigorous enforcement mechanisms."

Iran's state news agency, IRNA, disclosed the primary framework of the MoU's text on the 12th local time, noting that nuclear negotiations will be conducted within 60 days of the agreement's signing. During this 60-day period, the parties will discuss only three issues: the continued advancement of the peaceful nuclear program, the lifting of unilateral U.S. sanctions, and a compensation mechanism for losses. Any other topics, including Iran's missile capabilities, will not be included on the negotiating agenda.

U.S. media, citing a senior U.S. government official, reported that Iran has pledged to refrain from acquiring or developing nuclear weapons indefinitely, but technical details regarding the removal of Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium remain to be finalized and will be discussed in the next round of negotiations.