Is the 2026 IPO market stealing the playbook from crypto launches?

The 2026 IPO market is bracing for the effect of three giants going public – SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Crypto traders see parallels with the ICO trend, especially the period of VC-backed companies. 

The 2026 IPO market expects a valuation of up to $3B for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, according to analyst Thomas Tunguz. These valuations create the need to raise between $432B and $576B (for a 20% float). 

That raise will put pressure on the liquidity markets, as all three IPOs are expected in a single quarter. The amount needed is higher than all the IPO raises from US companies between 2016 and 2025. The year may also contain other high-profile IPOs, including Kraken, Anduril, and Canva, using the increased interest in new stocks to fulfill their intended raises.

Due to the high valuations, the IPOs will launch with a limited free float, as low as 3-8%. This limitation may create problems with index inclusion and a real market impact. 

The upcoming IPOs are valued much higher than previous leaders, Aramco and Alibaba, with SpaceX expected to raise $75B in its initial round. 

Is the 2026 IPO market using the crypto playbook?

For years, the crypto space boosted the ICO model, selling tokens in place of stocks. While the model met multiple obstacles, including US Securities and Exchange Commission regulations, it turned out to be a successful direct tool for fundraising. As a result, projects with big promises raised significant sums, securing a long-term runway. The upcoming IPO valuations are also seeking scale to secure the runway for the companies’ ambitious expansion. 

Initially, ICOs targeted early adopters, BTC holders, and crypto natives. The second round of ICOs, during the 2021 bull market, changed their way of distributing the token float, often leading to a series of projects with a limited free float and a large share of controlled supply held by insiders. 

The market performance of those tokens was a long unraveling of value, leaving retail traders with deep losses, while VC backers used the market as exit liquidity. 

SpaceX structured its IPO in a way resembling crypto sales

The SpaceX IPO is showing an internal structure similar to some crypto projects. The expected free float of 5% leaves 95% of shares in the hands of early backers. 

While the IPO has a standard 180-day lockup period, up to 20% of the Early Release Eligible shares may be released before that. In its S-1 filing, SpaceX listed the exceptions, allowing the early release to happen a full trading day after the first quarterly results release of SpaceX. The date has not been finalized, but is expected between mid-July and August.

An even earlier release will be possible for early buyers if the post-IPO stock trades at over 30% greater than the IPO price. Those conditions may release an additional 10% of the Early Release Eligible Shares. 

What worries investors the most is the rule changes around SpaceX and IPOs in general. Nasdaq will potentially list SpaceX in 15 days, instead of the previously required 90 days. The S&P index waived the profitability requirement, opening the 2026 IPO market to pension funds. 

The low float and high valuations may expose those pension funds to over-inflated valuations, using the accumulated $30T of pension fund money. At the same time, IPO stocks have also shown price weakness in the first year of trading. 

Based on pre-market trading, SpaceX shows a disparity between its IPO price and market price discovery. SpaceX plans to IPO at $135 per share, while on-chain trading has valued the stock at up to $744. 

The coming months will show how liquidity shifts, which may further dry out inflows to the crypto market.

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