Oil markets fluctuate sharply over mixed signals from Persian Gulf

Oil markets are fluctuating sharply over dual signals from the Persian Gulf. The latest moves come after Iran issued threats in response to the U.S. saying it will help free trapped vessels in Hormuz. 

Crude prices climbed in afternoon sessions, with Brent futures for July jumping 3.7% to reach $112.14 per barrel. The benchmark for American oil, WTI futures for June, posted similar gains of 3.6% to settle at $105.62 per barrel.

Prices were down earlier in the day after POTUS said on Sunday that Washington would begin helping commercial ships exit the blocked Strait of Hormuz.

Brent had initially dropped 0.5% to $107.64 per barrel in morning European trading, while WTI fell 0.6% to $101.28 per barrel.

Sparta Commodities explained the afternoon turnaround in blunt terms. The firm noted that crude futures were finally recognizing the reality of an extended closure of the vital waterway. Prospects for a quick recovery in shipping traffic appear dim, analysts said, while the possibility of fighting breaking out again continues to grow.

Tehran warns of attack on U.S. forces, denies warship hit

Iran’s top military commander delivered a stark warning Monday, telling the United States to keep its Navy away from the strait.

Ali Abdollahi, who heads the Iranian armed forces’ unified command, said his country would strike any foreign military vessels attempting to enter the waterway. He also instructed commercial ships and tankers not to move through the area unless they first coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The statement left no room for interpretation. Any foreign military presence, particularly American forces, would face attack if they tried approaching or entering the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Iranian warning.

Hours after that threat, Iran’s Fars news agency reported that two missiles had struck a U.S. warship at the southern entrance to the strait. The outlet has ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

U.S. Central Command quickly pushed back, stating flatly that no American naval vessels had been hit. The command added that U.S. forces remain focused on supporting Project Freedom while maintaining their naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Trump had unveiled the Project Freedom initiative Sunday, saying it responds to requests from nations whose ships have been stuck in the Gulf throughout the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. He called these countries neutral parties caught in the middle.

Writing on Truth Social, Trump said Washington would safely guide vessels belonging to these nations out of the restricted waters so they could resume normal operations.

He noted that many ships were running dangerously low on food and other supplies needed to keep large crews healthy. The president warned that any attempts to interfere with the operation would be met with force, though he didn’t identify which countries had asked for help.

The Pentagon is deploying significant resources for the mission. Central Command said it would dedicate 15,000 service members to the effort, along with more than 100 aircraft operating from land and sea bases, plus warships and drones.

ING analysts expressed doubt about the plan’s effectiveness. Even if ships can leave the Gulf, they expect minimal inbound traffic to replace them. The bigger issue remains unresolved talks between Washington and Tehran, where negotiators have yet to make real progress on reopening the strait or addressing Iran’s nuclear activities.

Gas prices soar as Exxon warns worst impact still ahead

The blockade has driven American gasoline prices to $4.44 per gallon, up from under $3 before fighting began February 28. Trump ordered the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports starting April 13, as reported by Cryptopolitan previously.

Exxon Mobil’s chief executive warned Friday that oil markets haven’t felt the full force of the supply shock yet.

Darren Woods said inventories and reserves that cushioned the initial blow will run out if the strait stays closed, pushing prices higher. The company expects Middle East output to fall by 750,000 barrels daily compared to 2025 if the closure continues through the second quarter.

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