Analysts say USDT contraction may signal market exhaustion, not collapse

The crypto market looks bleak at the moment, with Bitcoin hovering around $65,000 to start the week, while Tether’s USDT triggered an approximately $3 billion contraction signal. On the surface, both incidents suggest trouble for the market, but a second look at historical data reveals why some analysts consider these red flags as boost signals instead.

For the second time in crypto history, the USDT 60-day market cap change dropped below $3 billion. The first time happened back in 2022, also coinciding with Bitcoin’s low point (near $16,000). 

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to a low of 5, matching the same fear levels last seen during the FTX collapse.

USDT supply contraction signaling exhaustion?

Stablecoins often act as the battery health of the market. As such, when USDT supply grows, for example, it can indicate fresh capital entering the market. 

On the other hand, sharp contractions in the market can be taken as risk-off behavior and forced sales. According to an analysis of Artemis Analytics data, USDT’s circulating supply shrank by $1.5 billion in February alone, making this its steepest monthly decline since November 2022.

The supply peaked at approximately $187 billion in early January 2026 before falling to less than $184 billion by mid-February. TradingView also revealed that whale wallets offloaded up to $69.9 million in USDT across 22 addresses in one week, meaning a 1.6x increase in sales compared to prior activity. 

On-chain analyst Julio Moreno was the one who noticed the trend, posting on CryptoQuant that “the 60-day market cap change has dropped below ~$3b, on only two occasions. The first occurred in late 2022, precisely as Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom near $16k, a moment of maximum fear and forced selling.”

Large-scale withdrawals like this could mean several institutions may be considering leaving the broader crypto market. However, from a historical perspective, exits like these usually happen near exhaustion points, not during bearish trends.

Fear readings match 2022 prices

Bitcoin’s price activity also mirrors the shift in sentiment. After dropping below $61,000 on February 5, the token roared back to the $66,000-$68,000 range, but it still remains 47% lower than its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now spent 22 consecutive days on the extreme fear side of the spectrum, with readings between 5 and 13. This level of pessimism hasn’t been seen since the FTX collapse triggered a months-long bear market in 2022. 

Gemini’s CEO, Tyler Winklevoss, echoed the same thoughts in his posts over the weekend, stating that  “The sentiment in crypto right now is so bad that I’m actually pretty optimistic.”

According to data from Glassnode, recent Bitcoin buyers also went through heavy losses earlier this month, with losses falling to approximately $1.24 billion per day as of February 6. That figure has since improved to about $480 million per day, suggesting that panic selling has reduced but still hasn’t fully stopped.

What does this pattern actually mean?

The crypto market usually moves differently from what most expect, and analysts are drawing on past experience where the strongest signals have come from the most extreme fear zones. 

Historical data also shows that extreme fear coincided with the March 2020 Covid crash as well, which marked one of Bitcoin’s best entry points. Extreme fear price movements also coincided with the 2021 mid-cycle correction and the 2022 crypto winter (triggered by FTX).

Despite the recent slowdown, the total stablecoin market caps remain at near-record highs of around $305 billion, suggesting that capital is most likely rotating within the wider ecosystem rather than leaving the market entirely. 

Although Tether’s USDT is contracting, Circle’s USDC seems to be steadily growing as well.

Whether or not these signals will actually translate into immediate price recovery can’t be said for certain. However, historical data show that Bitcoin usually enters strong recovery phases when USDT outflows stabilize after peak liquidity stress. 

The key variables will be whether USDT redemptions stabilize in early March and whether the Fear & Greed Index begins to move out of extreme territory.

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