ECB’s Wunsch: Would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening
The remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and the head of Belgium's central bank, Pierre Wunsch, released by Econostream during the European trade on Wednesday, have signaled that he is not in favor of further monetary policy tightening.
In the June policy meeting, the ECB hiked its policy rates by 25 basis points (bps), the first one seen since September 2023.
Additional remarks
Any inflation surprise before the July meeting more likely on the downside.
Oil prices could fall below pre-war levels.
Most oil production capacity should be restored within a quarter if conflict is over.
One hike could be enough if shock fades before significant second-round effects.
More than one hike to depend on more persistence and stronger second-round effects.
Market reaction
The Euro (EUR) didn't react immediately to ECB Wunsch's remarks. At press time, EUR/USD trades 0.22% lower to near 1.1395.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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