BoE's Bailey: Stresses on monitoring Middle East situation and its impact on economy, prices
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey Said during the European trading session on Friday that the central bank should monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it has been affecting the United Kingdom (UK) economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required.
Additional remarks
Having taken expected cuts off the table for now, we have already tightened policy considerably in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets.
That is already affecting the economy.
Softness in economy and uncertainty around Iran war shock means tolerating temporarily above target inflation is an appropriate way to approach the policy trade-off.
But that tolerance would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge.
Higher inflation expectations are not coming through in wage expectations and settlements.
Hopes fall in UK bond market curve will go on but depends on events in Middle East.
Market reaction
There has been a slight selling pressure in the British Pound (GBP) after BoE Bailey's comments. However, GBP/USD was already underperforming, trading 0.23% lower to near 1.3415.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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