DXY: Mixed on the day – OCBC
Dollar Index (DXY) dipped, alongside the decline in UST yields post-FOMC. DXY was last at 103.72 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USD may enter into a mixed play
"Bearish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI shows signs of rising from near oversold conditions. Mild rebound risk is not ruled out. Resistance at 104 (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 105 levels (50% fibo, 21, 200 DMAs). Support at 103.10, 102.50 levels (76.4% fibo)."
"Risk of broadening tariff war may potentially weigh on global growth, trade, undermine market sentiments and drag on Asian FX, especially ahead of 2 Apr reciprocal tariff risk. The likes of KRW, JPY and IDR may be undermined in the near term. In addition, there were some concerns of EM contagion risks after Turkish Lira and Colombian Pesos saw a sharp sell-off at one point yesterday, driven by idiosyncratic (domestic) factors."
"Tariff war and EM contagion fears can bring back memories of the 2018 EM sell-off. This risk reinforces our view that USD may enter into a mixed play – USD gains to be more pronounced vs. selected EM Asian FX and high- beta majors like AUD and NZD while USD may stay sideways or modestly softer vs. G3 majors."
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