Dollar Index to trade in range – OCBC

USD traded modestly softer as US retail sales disappointed. Fed speakers are hesitant to define the date for the next rate cut, OCBC FX Strategist Christopher Wong notes.

Fed is hesitant to sound dovish

“US retail sales rose by 0.1% MoM in May following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in April, falling short of the 0.3% growth consensus. Core retail sales, excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, rose 0.4% MoM, slightly below the 0.5% MoM consensus. This week, focus is on jobless claims (Thu) and prelim PMIs (Fri). Softer data should weigh on USD.”

“On Fedspeaks, Musalem acknowledged that recent data on real consumer spending and nominal retail sales have mostly underwhelmed. He also said that he will need to observe a period of favorable inflation, moderating demand and expanding supply before becoming confident that a rate cut is appropriate. Separately, Collins said Fed should be patient as it considers when to lower rates.”

|DXY was last at 104.84. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI moderated. Support at 104.80 (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct high to 2024 low), 104 (50% fibo). Resistance at 105.50, 105.75 (76.4% fibo). 2-way trade likely in the range of 104.80 – 105.50 in absence of key catalyst.”