DXY: 2Q GDP today – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) dipped overnight, tracking the moves lower in UST yields. DXY last at 98 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Core PCE tomorrow
"Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI drifted modestly lower. 2-way trades likely in the interim. Resistance at 98.50 (21 DMA), 98.90 (100 DMA), 99.60 levels. Support at 97.60 levels."
"Data focus today on 2Q GDP, initial jobless claims before core PCE (Friday) before NFP next Friday. We will be keeping a lookout on whether data or Fedspeaks changes the narrative from 25bp cut expectation to discussion of 50bp cut at Sep FOMC or whether the trajectory of cut increases."
"For now, markets are still pricing in 88% chance of 25bp cut at Sep FOMC and a total of about 55bps cut this year. USD bears would need weak US data or more dovish Fed rhetoric."
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