Polymarket sees rising bets on Trump granting SBF a pardon

Following Changpeng Zhao’s release, Polymarket traders had boosted the odds of former FTX chief Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a pardon this year to 17%, up from 5.6% earlier in the day. Though currently, his odds have dropped to about 7%.

So far, the “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” on Polymarket has drawn over $6.6 million in wagers, with more than $300,000 staked on SBF alone. Odds on another Polymarket market, asking if SBF will be freed in 2025, had also surged from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling near 13%.

This follows conservative activist Laura Loomer’s allegations in an X post that a“well-funded” effort is in progress to get the founder of the collapsed FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, out of prison.

Activist Laura Loomer warned members of the current administration and the general public not to fall for the alleged efforts to whitewash the founder of the defunct FTX exchange, SBF, who led to the 2022 market crash and subsequent bear market.

Analysts say SBF’s crimes cannot be compared to CZ

Crypto betting platform Polymarket has seen a notable increase in activity regarding SBF’s chances of receiving a presidential pardon. SBF has already appealed his 25-year sentence. However, with little progress on the case, a Trump pardon may be his only possible route to early freedom. 

Trump’s pardoning of Binance’s CZ has since led to comparisons with SBF, although many argue that SBF does not deserve the same consideration. Zhao stepped down as Binance CEO in 2023, after the exchange acknowledged breaking anti–money laundering laws and agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine. He was subsequently sentenced to four months in prison after admitting the charge.

When Trump issued a pardon to CZ, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had described Zhao’s prosecution as part of the Biden administration’s war on crypto. She also pushed back on the narrative that Trump wanted to profit from the crypto boom, arguing that all presidential pardons are reviewed with care. 

In comparison to CZ’s case, which centered on AML violations, SBF’s conviction involved more serious crimes of fraud and conspiracy involving billions of customer deposits, raising doubts about whether he truly deserves a pardon.

Crypto attorney Sasha Hodder argued similarly that CZ’s wrongdoing doesn’t compare in scale to the crimes of SBF or Terraform Labs’ former CEO, Do Kwon. She noted, I’m really glad CZ got the pardon. Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance operated as a real exchange. Withdrawals always worked. His “crime” was compliance-related, not criminal in the moral sense.”

Additionally, crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky shared that, in his view, a pardon for SBF seemed highly unlikely, given his past as a major Democratic donor before FTX’s downfall in November 2022.

CZ is currently one of the main supporters behind the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto venture.

Polymarket wagers are also betting on Roger Ver

Aside from Zhao, Trump has pardoned BitMEX founders Arthur Hayes and his partners, along with Ross Ulbricht, the Silk Road founder, who was sentenced to two life sentences and 40 additional years.

Currently, per Polymarket odds, Roger Ver is also a likely candidate to receive a presidential pardon, with a probability of approximately 20%. A pardon could absolve him of the tax and extradition charges.

However, earlier this year, Ver entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice. He agreed to hand over about $50 million to the IRS, covering unpaid taxes, penalties, and interest related to his unreported Bitcoin holdings from 2014.

Court documents show that Ver started accumulating Bitcoin in 2011, before later gaining fame as “Bitcoin Jesus” for his enthusiastic promotion of the cryptocurrency. In a deal with the prosecution, he conceded that his 2016 tax filings omitted a portion of his Bitcoin assets, resulting in an unpaid capital gains tax and a loss of about $16.86 million to the United States.

He also admitted that his underreporting of taxes was intentional, thus meeting the legal standard for willful misconduct. Consequently, he accepted a $12 million penalty, in addition to interest on taxes and fines.

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