Gold declines as Trump scraps Iran memorandum, markets await Fed minutes
- Gold declines despite rising geopolitical tensions as renewed demand for the US Dollar limits the precious metal's appeal.
- Donald Trump says the memorandum of understanding with Iran is over, reviving fears of renewed escalation in the Middle East.
- Investors now await the Federal Reserve's June meeting Minutes for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,050 on Wednesday, down 1.40% on the day at the time of writing, as investors favor the US Dollar (USD) following a fresh deterioration in tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The precious metal remains under pressure despite the increasingly fragile geopolitical backdrop, as markets expect that persistently higher energy prices could keep US monetary policy restrictive.
Market sentiment deteriorated after US President Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was now "over." Trump also stated that he no longer wanted to deal with Iran, while announcing trade measures against Spain and renewing his criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). These remarks supported the US Dollar, while Oil prices advanced amid rising concerns over global supply disruptions.
Tensions escalated after US strikes targeted Iranian military infrastructure in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The collapse of the memorandum with Iran has reignited concerns over the security of this strategic waterway, through which a significant share of global Oil exports passes. Market participants fear that a broader conflict could keep energy prices elevated and fuel a new wave of inflationary pressures.
Against this backdrop, US Treasury yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on non-yielding Gold. Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) June meeting Minutes for additional guidance on the future path of monetary policy.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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