Energy: OPEC+ supply increases – ING

Oil prices came under significant pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent falling more than 3% over the day, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Market can handle additional supply

"This came amid reports that OPEC+ is considering increasing supply by a further 137k b/d in November. We should get confirmation on 5 October, when the group is set to meet. Our balance sheet clearly suggests additional supply isn’t needed. We expect the market to move into a large surplus in the fourth quarter and remain in surplus through 2026. As a result, we expected Oil prices to come under significant pressure over the course of next year."

"While the general view is that supply increases from OPEC+ are an attempt to regain market share, the front end of the curve remaining in backwardation will give the group comfort that the market can handle additional supply. As we move into the surplus environment, though, timespreads should come under further pressure."