Indian Rupee hits fresh two-month high against US Dollar
- The Indian Rupee jumps to a fresh two-month high against the US Dollar, with USD/INR sliding to near 94.28.
- Robust foreign inflows through RBI’s special forex scheme have strengthened the Indian currency.
- The US Dollar declines after soft US ADP Employment Change data.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending the rally to near 94.28. The Indian currency gains significantly as a juggernaut mobilisation of foreign exchange in India through the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) (B) deposits window has increased FX reserves.
According to a Reuters report, India attracted a much larger-than-expected $136.38 billion through special foreign-currency mobilisation schemes, the RBI said on Wednesday, empowering the Indian central bank to contain more pressure.
In the last several months, the RBI was seen intervening in spot and Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) markets to support the Indian currency against excessive one-sided volatile moves amid geopolitical uncertainty.
In addition to a significant inflow of foreign funds through the RBI’s special foreign exchange window, weakness in the US Dollar has also pressured USD/INR.
Soft US private labor data hurts US Dollar
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, fell sharply on Wednesday, and has extended its decline on Thursday to near 99.38 so far in the Asian session.
The Greenback came under pressure after the US ADP reported that the private sector created 38K fresh jobs in August, fewer than 47K estimate and the prior release of 46K. This has set a weak stage for the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published on Friday.
Investors will closely track the US NFP data as it is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
On Wednesday, New York Fed Bank President John Williams expressed confidence that the labor market is “stable and solid", and inflation expectations are “contained”.
India growth surprise narrows room for RBI to stay dovish
Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that India’s “reported 2Q26 real GDP growth of 7.8%, 80bp above the RBI’s forecast,” suggests aggregate demand is absorbing “tighter financial and adverse external conditions more comfortably than previously assumed.” They stress that the upside surprise was “reasonably broad-based,” noting that real GVA “expanded 8.2%, services grew 10.0%, manufacturing 9.2% and gross fixed capital formation 11.9%, while private consumption rose 7.1%.”
Societe Generale adds that this “super charged growth comes on the back of a massive upward revision to the 1Q26 real GDP and real GVA growth by 0.80 percentage points each,” which in their view “reduces the downside growth cost of additional monetary tightening and suggests that the economy is operating with less spare capacity than embedded in the RBI’s current FY27 growth projection of 6.7%.”
At the same time, the bank cautions that the principal downside risks to this assessment would be “a sharp reversal in food and energy prices, a material weakening in domestic activity, or evidence that the exceptional GDP print overstates underlying demand momentum (which we believe is likely the case).”
USD/INR Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 94.48, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.32.
The bearish structure is reinforced by price trading under this key trend reference, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 27.96 slips into oversold territory, hinting that while selling pressure dominates, the downside could start to lose momentum if sub-95 levels persist.
On the topside, initial resistance is provided by the 20-day EMA at 95.32, and a daily close back above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and signal room for a corrective bounce. Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the June 25 low at 94.16.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Artigos Recomendados
