Japanese Yen gains ground on intervention risks
- USD/JPY softens to near 162.45 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Traders are on high alert for possible Japanese Yen intervention.
- The Fed minutes underscored the deep divisions among Fed officials, particularly over the future path of inflation.
The USD/JPY pair edges lower to around 162.45 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) amid fears of possible intervention from Japanese authorities. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report is due later on Thursday.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Tokyo remains in regular contact with the US on foreign exchange issues and is ready to respond appropriately at any time.
“The yen’s current weakness is excessive and fails to reflect the strong fundamentals of the Japanese economy, a misalignment that could prompt major central banks to launch coordinated intervention,” said Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.
According to Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes released on Wednesday, the committee is split over whether inflation is likely to stay elevated or whether it will cool once the Iran war winds down. In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), many participants said its key rate would be unchanged from or slightly below its current level of 3.6% by the end of this year. But “many” also said that it would likely be higher by year-end.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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