Canadian Dollar moves little as traders adopt caution ahead of US-China summit
- USD/CAD remains steady as traders await the high-stakes Trump-Xi summit.
- Trump and Xi may lower tariffs on $30 billion of non-sensitive goods, excluding items vital to national security.
- The commodity-linked CAD may weaken as falling oil prices reduce demand for Canada’s primary export.
USD/CAD remains calm after six days of gains, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair stays silent as the US Dollar (USD) moves little as market caution prevails ahead of a pivotal summit in Beijing between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Traders will also shift their focus to the US Retail Sales report for April due later in the day.
As the world’s two largest economies attempt to stabilize their relationship, they are reportedly considering a framework to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of goods, excluding those tied to national security. However, geopolitical tensions remain a major factor. The summit is taking place against the backdrop of the war in Iran. Washington has recently increased pressure on Tehran by imposing new sanctions on entities involved in selling Iranian oil to China and threatening banks that facilitate those transactions.
On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that wholesale inflation hit its highest level since late 2022. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.0% year-over-year (YoY) in April, up from 4.3% in March and well above the 4.9% expected by the market. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 1.4%, doubling the previous month’s 0.7% and far exceeding the anticipated 0.5% increase.
The USD/CAD pair may regain its ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may lose ground amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
However, Oil supply concerns also loom over the market as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that crude and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by nearly 6 million barrels per day in the first quarter following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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