Forex Today: Hot US inflation data lifts US Dollar as markets brace for Retail Sales and UK GDP
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, May 14:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises toward the 98.50 region, reaching its highest level since late April after US Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in much hotter than expected. Headline PPI rose 1.4% MoM in April, above the 0.5% forecast, while Core PPI climbed 1.0%, reinforcing concerns that inflation pressure is surging and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep rates elevated for longer.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.06% | -0.22% | 0.28% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.47% | 0.03% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | 0.12% | 0.04% | -0.07% | -0.34% | 0.18% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.17% | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.39% | 0.11% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.21% | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.28% | 0.23% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.22% | 0.47% | 0.34% | 0.39% | 0.28% | 0.52% | 0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.23% | -0.52% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.10% | -0.03% | -0.00% | -0.11% | -0.41% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD falls toward the 1.1710 area, pressured by broad USD strength and rising US yields. The Euro remains unable to build momentum as traders reassess Fed expectations and monitor softer signals from the Eurozone.
GBP/USD declines toward the 1.3520 region, weighed down by the stronger Greenback and renewed UK political and fiscal concerns. Sterling remains vulnerable as pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, elevated Gilt volatility, and doubts over the UK’s economic outlook keep investors cautious.
USD/JPY advances near the 156.90 zone, supported by higher US yields after the hot inflation data. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure as widening yield differentials continue to favor the US Dollar despite lingering safe-haven demand linked to geopolitical uncertainty.
AUD/USD retreats toward the 0.7250 region as the stronger USD offsets support from commodity prices and risk-sensitive flows.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near the $101.20 per barrel, supported by falling US crude inventories and persistent supply concerns linked to the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. US crude stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels, more than expected.
Gold remains pressured near the $4,690 region as higher US yields and a stronger US Dollar reduce demand for the non-yielding metal. However, geopolitical uncertainty continues to limit deeper downside.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, May 14:
- AU May Consumer Inflation Expectations
- UK March GDP MoM; UK Q1 GDP QoQ Prel; UK Q1 GDP YoY Prel
- UK March Industrial Production MoM; UK March Manufacturing Production MoM
- DE April HICP YoY
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US April Retail Sales MoM; US April Retail Sales Control Group; US April Retail Sales ex Autos MoM
- NZ April Business NZ PMI
Friday, May 15:
- FR April CPI EU norm YoY; FR April CPI YoY
- US May NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- US April Industrial Production MoM
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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