NZD/USD remains capped below 0.5790 amid a somewhat firmer US Dollar
- New Zealand's Dollar rally remains capped below 0.5790 as the US Dollar picks up from lows.
- Investors are bracing for a "hawkish cut" by the Fed on Wednesday.
- Upbeat trade data from China keeps the New Zealand Dollar supported on Tuesday.
The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, yet upside attempts remain limited below Monday’s highs, at the 0.5790 area. The US Dollar has drawn some support due to the risk-averse reaction to the earthquake in Japan, and investors’ cautiousness ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.
News that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake hit the north of Japan on Monday, causing evacuations and a Tsunami alert, unleashed a risk-averse market reaction, pushing US Treasury yields higher and drawing the US Dollar higher with them.
Hopes of a Hawkish Fed message are lifting the USD
Apart from that, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision remains front and centre, and investors are anticipating a “hawkish cut”. With a quarter-point rate cut all but certain, Chairman Powell is expected to lift the bar for further monetary easing and hint at a pause in the first months of 2026, which is providing some support to the US Dollar.
The New Zealand Dollar, on the other hand, remains buoyed by the strong trade figures released by China on Monday. China is New Zealand's major trade partner, and reported a trade surplus exceeding USD 1 trillion in November, driven by a 5.9% year-on-year increase in exports. These figures have boosted confidence in the World’s second-largest economy and improved expectations for New Zealand’s economic outlook.
In the calendar today, the focus will be on the US JOLTS Job Openings, which are expected to have remained steady at 7.2 million in September and October, little changed from the 7.22 million seen in August.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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