EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1700, downside seems limited due to Fed rate cut bets
- EUR/USD edges lower as the US Dollar gains ground on the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts.
- CME FedWatch Tool prices in 95% odds of an October Fed cut and 84% for December.
- The Euro could find continued support amid prospects of a cautious policy approach by the ECB.
EUR/USD retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1720 during the Asian hours on Monday. The downside of the pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) may struggle amid the rising likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the upcoming meetings. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and an 84% possibility of another reduction in December.
The upside of the Greenback could also be restrained as concerns rise after United States (US) Senators failed to pass spending proposals to reopen the federal government for a fourth time, extending the ongoing shutdown into a new week. The closure has suspended key federal programs and delayed major economic reports, including September’s jobs data originally due Friday.
The EUR/USD pair may regain its ground as the Euro (EUR) could continue to draw support from the potential for a cautious policy stance from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said last week that the current level of interest rates is “very appropriate” and can be maintained. Kazaks added that uncertainty remains very high and must retain full freedom of action.
Traders would likely observe speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos and ECB Executive Board member Philip Richard Lane later in the day. Focus will shift toward Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence and August Retail Sales data.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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