United States Dollar Index hold gains above 99.50 as Treasury yields hit multi-year highs
- US Dollar Index rises on Fed rate hike fears as global bond selloff pushed US 10-year Treasury yields to 4.80%.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions boosted crude oil prices, amplifying concerns over persistent inflation and potential Fed tightening.
- BBH warns rising interest expenses will increase US Treasury term premiums, leaving the dollar vulnerable to fiscal stress.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the second successive day and trading around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
The Greenback has strengthened amid rising bond yields and surging oil prices, which have reignited concerns over persistent inflation and the likelihood of potential interest rate hikes. Driven by a global bond selloff, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.80%, reaching its highest level since early 2025. Compounding these inflationary pressures, crude oil prices jumped significantly following escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran, intensifying worries over potential energy flow disruptions from the Middle East.
Meanwhile, recent economic data from the US offers a mixed backdrop for broader market sentiment. July JOLTS job openings fell below market expectations at 7.27 million, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased slightly from 55.6 to 54.6 in August. Despite missing forecasts, the PMI remains firmly in expansion territory, pointing to a resilient manufacturing sector. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming ADP employment report and Friday's nonfarm payrolls to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
Dollar support tempered by rising fiscal risk premium
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that Bessent has pushed back against the view that the latest rise in Treasury yields primarily reflects mounting worries over US fiscal sustainability, pointing instead to the “outperformance of US 10-year Treasuries relative to other major bond markets.” They caution, however, that this “relative outperformance does not make the fiscal risk disappear,” warning that “rising interest expense will ultimately push up the US Treasury term premium, leaving USD more vulnerable to periods of fiscal stress.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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