UK PM Burnham’s first fiscal policy pledge comes on trial
A statement from United Kingdom (UK) lawmaker Darren Jones, an ally of former prime minister (PM) Keir Starmer, that the funding source of tax cuts on energy bills, as promised by new PM Andy Burnham, was already unfunded, has pushed political stability optimism under the scanner.
"The government will have to set out how it will pay for its new policies at the budget," Jones said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
In his first speech on Monday, UK PM Burnham vowed to remove the value-added tax (VAT) from domestic electricity bills from October 1, cutting around £45 from the average annual bill of around £1,862 that households pay, Reuters reported.
"We're taking immediate action to cut taxes on energy bills, put more money in people's pockets and bring back hope," he said in a statement, having pledged to give people more "breathing space" in their lives.
UK Burnham further added that the cost of tax cuts will be borne by funds allocated for the £1.8 billion ($2.42 billion) digital ID program, which will now be canceled.
Market reaction
A corrective move is seen in the British Pound (GBP) following the tweet from UK lawmaker Jones. At press time, GBP/USD is down to near 1.3440 from its intraday high of 1.3455, but is still marginally higher from Monday's closing price of 1.3430.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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