United States Dollar Index rises to near 101.00 on Fed hikes this year
- US Dollar Index holds steady on expectations of further Fed rate hikes, despite cooling global inflation pressures.
- The CME FedWatch tool indicates that markets price a 77.3% chance of year-end Fed rate hikes.
- Weak labor market data released last week prompted financial markets to reduce their bets on a September Fed rate hike.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after remaining unchanged in the previous day and trading around 101.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.
The Greenback holds steady as traders anticipate further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes later this year. The currency's resilience persists despite easing global inflation pressures, which have been aided by a return to normal oil shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The CME FedWatch tool shows financial markets are pricing in a 77.3% chance of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes by year-end. Traders will likely observe the US Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) due later in the day. Traders will shift their focus toward Wednesday's release of the Fed’s June policy Meeting Minutes to gain clearer insights into the future path of interest rates.
However, the US Dollar may face challenges as labor market data released last week prompted markets to reduce bets on a September rate hike. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed only 57,000 jobs added last month, severely missing the market's forecast of 110,000. While the headline unemployment rate did manage an unexpected drop to 4.2% from May's 4.3%, the dramatic hiring slowdown strongly signals that the broader economy is cooling down.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed last week the central bank’s independent commitment to its 2% price stability target. Notably, he also acknowledged that inflation risks and expectations have finally begun to moderate over the past month.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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