Forex Today: The US Dollar retreats as US elections and RBA loom
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 3:
The US Dollar (USD) is under pressure despite upbeat macroeconomic data: the October ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts, yet market participants set it aside. Geopolitics is playing a crucial role, with news of a possible breakthrough in negotiations between the US and Iran, while traders brace for the outcome of the US mid-term elections, Factory Orders, and the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS). At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 101.72, down 0.24%.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.33% | -0.16% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.49% | 0.19% | -0.88% | |
| EUR | 0.33% | 0.18% | 0.53% | 0.42% | 0.82% | 0.52% | -0.52% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | -0.18% | 0.38% | 0.25% | 0.63% | 0.33% | -0.70% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | -0.53% | -0.38% | -0.09% | 0.29% | -0.00% | -1.07% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.42% | -0.25% | 0.09% | 0.40% | 0.09% | -0.95% | |
| AUD | -0.49% | -0.82% | -0.63% | -0.29% | -0.40% | -0.29% | -1.34% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.52% | -0.33% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.29% | -1.03% | |
| CHF | 0.88% | 0.52% | 0.70% | 1.07% | 0.95% | 1.34% | 1.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The EUR/USD is poised to finish Monday’s session with gains of 0.33% below 1.1200, even though HCOB PMIs were solid in Spain and Germany, but not so in Italy, contracting from 50.4 to 49.4, below forecasts. On Tuesday, investors' focus is on speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials Joachim Nagel and Olaf Sleijpen.
The British Pound hovers around 1.3400, with GBP/USD reaching a high of 1.3448, but buyers failed to sustain the uptrend. The docket is empty, but traders can continue to price in a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike on Thursday, with odds near 100%, according to LSEG data.
The USD/JPY trades sideways, following last Friday’s dovish surprise by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Although the message was moderately hawkish, money markets expect higher interest rates in the December meeting.
AUD/USD dropped to 0.7000 with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision up next at 03:30 GMT. Investors expect a 25 bps rate hike, with odds at 85%, and, along with the monetary policy decision and the release of the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, the RBA’s Governor Bullock press conference is awaited.
The USD/CHF was the outperformer in the FX space, with no clear catalyst, but the pair moving from around 0.8250 to 0.8182 was noticed by investors. The release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Switzerland could set the pace for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is expected to maintain its currency policy stance at one of the lowest interest rates.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude collapsed amid rumors of a possible resolution between Washington and Tehran. WTI is tanking more than 6.60%, down to $96.11, weighed down by Axios reporting that US President Trump prefers to give diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed strikes.
Gold (XAU/USD) benefited from overall US Dollar weakness, given its positive correlation with WTI, and is poised to gain more than 1.50% to $3,964 per troy ounce. Despite this, per market structure, the overall trend remains downwards, but if buyers reclaim $4,000, a recovery is likely. Additionally, falling US Treasury yields are another catalyst that pushed the yellow metal to current spot prices.
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