US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds losses below 99.00 as bearish bias prevails

• US Dollar Index may fall toward the six-month low of 97.62.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 37 suggests lingering downside pressure remains.
• The primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 99.00.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the fourth successive day and trading around 98.70 during the European hours on Thursday. The DXY is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This configuration suggests rallies are being capped by nearby dynamic resistance.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 37 hints at lingering downside pressure rather than an immediate oversold rebound. Additionally, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the dollar index is trading within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bearish reversal.

However, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index is at 125.72, keeping the gauge firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 line. This move, combined with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score, confirms a broad-based shift toward tighter policy expectations that should underpin the Dollar against peers such as the Euro and Yen in the short term.

On the downside, the DXY may navigate the region around the six-month low of 97.62, recorded on May 6, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel around 97.50.

The US Dollar Index would find the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 99.00. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 99.40, followed by the 50-day EMA at 99.65. A break above this confluence resistance zone would cause a bullish reversal and support the DXY in exploring the area around 101.80, the lowest level since May 2025.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)