US Dollar Index advances to near 98.50 despite worries over Fed independence
- The US Dollar Index rises ahead of looming US economic data later in the week.
- Traders adopt caution due to rising concerns over Fed independence.
- Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s exit may boost the odds of earlier rate cuts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is recovering its recent losses and trading around 98.50 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders await the upcoming release of the Q2 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized and July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
However, the upside of the US Dollar could be limited as traders remain cautious amid rising Fed concerns and the prospect of a more dovish Fed. US President Donald Trump announced early Tuesday that he was removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position on the Fed's board of directors. Trump also said that he was ready for a legal fight with Cook over falsified mortgage documents.
Trump has already nominated White House economist Stephen Miran to a temporary seat that expires in January and has suggested Miran could also be in the running for Cook’s position. Meanwhile, David Malpass, former World Bank president, is considered another potential candidate, per the Wall Street Journal.
The exit of Fed Governor Cook may increase the chances of earlier interest rate cuts, given Trump’s ongoing pressure on the central bank to reduce borrowing costs. Traders are now pricing in more than 87% odds for a cut of at least a quarter-point at the Fed’s September meeting, up from 84% previous day, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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