Bitcoin may continue consolidation as rising equities correlation pose downside risk

• Bitcoin saw a brief spike in derivatives positioning last week amid a decline in spot demand.
• BTC’s rising correlation with the S&P 500 increases macro drawdown risks, making broader economic conditions more important than crypto catalysts.
• The top crypto's next major resistance sits within the $90,000-$95,000 zone following its breakout above $82,500.

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above $85,000 on Tuesday following a recent rebound, but the market still lacks the catalyst needed to sustain a stronger move higher.

Bitcoin holds above $84K amid subdued spot demand

BTC reached $87,220 on Friday before retreating near $84,000 following a brief increase in derivatives positioning.

Crypto exchange Bitfinex noted in a Monday report that the move was supported by a combination of improving liquidity conditions and renewed risk appetite. However, the firm argued that a stronger and more durable advance would require greater participation from spot buyers.

“A resolution to the upside will depend on ETF flows returning towards the levels seen in late September,” Bitfinex wrote.

The firm also warned that the absence of a decisive catalyst could leave the market vulnerable to further consolidation.

“Our base case is consolidation above $84,000, the largest cost-basis cluster and the level at which 75 percent of supply is in profit,” the firm stated.

Macro conditions could determine Bitcoin’s next move

Wintermute took a broader macro view of Bitcoin's current setup amid rising correlation with equities.

The firm shared in a Tuesday X post that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has increased after breaking down six weeks ago, highlighting that it does not necessarily imply a direct relationship with the top crypto's performance or volatility, but it does change the asset's risk profile.

“In high-correlation regimes BTC trades as a high-beta version of the SPX with a negative skew, falling with equities while rarely participating equally on the way up," Wintermute wrote.

The rising correlation signals that macroeconomic drawdown poses a higher risk than crypto-specific catalysts.

Wintermute also pointed to Bitcoin's recent technical breakout. BTC moved above the $76,000 to $82,500 range two weeks ago and has continued higher, with last week's retest of $82,500 confirming the level as support.

The next major resistance zone is between $90,000 and $95,000, according to Wintermute, where Bitcoin previously faced rejection around the December range high of $94,000 to $96,000.

“Whether BTC gets there depends more on macro than it did when it bounced off the August cycle lows,” the report stated.

Treasury yields remain a key concern. Wintermute said that the 30-year yield has been climbing, noting higher long-term yields can pressure risk assets by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and tightening liquidity. However, the firm maintains a moderately bullish position into the November 3 US midterm elections, noting that long-end yields could ease after the uncertainty, serving as the swing factor for Bitcoin.

“Strong earnings mean lower yields would pull capital back into the beaten-down rate-sensitive names, driving the next leg up in equities and taking crypto with it,” the report stated.

Wintermute also pointed to signs of maturity in the current altcoin rally. While the number of newer tokens entering the top 250 resembles the early stages of previous cycles, Wintermute stated that lower-tier tokens are now rallying, while higher-quality names remain flat or lower.

“Lower-tier tokens are now rallying mainly because they lagged and that is what the late stage of a micro rally looks like,” Wintermute wrote.

Bitcoin is trading at $85,500, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.