WTI Price Forecast: Downside bias persists while below 100-SMA hurdle near $86.80
- WTI struggles to capitalize on an intraday bounce and remains below the overnight swing high.
- Traders opt to wait for further geopolitical developments before placing fresh directional bets.
- The bearish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday, climbing back above the $86.00 mark during the first half of the European session. The commodity, however, lacks follow-through and remains below the previous day's swing high as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.
US forces reportedly carried out a series of strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Tehran attacked ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar, located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that Tehran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz and will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and offers some support to crude oil prices.
Investors, however, remain hopeful over a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, rising US crude inventories have fueled concerns about a potential supply glut, which holds back bulls from placing aggressive bets on the black liquid. In fact, US production for the week ending October 30 reached a new record; the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that US commercial crude inventories rose about 9 million barrels in the week ending November 6.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices maintain a bearish near-term tone beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.81. Adding to this, momentum indicators reinforce the soft bias, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near the low-30s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding below zero with a negative histogram, hinting at persistent downside pressure. That said, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $85.61 offers immediate structural support.
A convincing break below would expose deeper Fibonacci floors at $81.26 (61.8%) and $75.06 (78.6%), while a more distant structural base emerges near $67.17. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at $86.81, followed by the 38.2% retracement at $89.96. A sustained break above these would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way toward the 23.6% retracement at $95.34, with the cycle high region near $104.04 remaining a remote barrier for now.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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