WTI Price Forecast: Pulls back from multi-month top near 104.00 as bullish bias holds
- WTI struggles to capitalize on the Asian session gains to a fresh high since May 19.
- Hopes for Middle East diplomacy prompt bulls to take some profits off the table.
- Supply disruption worries act as a tailwind amid a constructive technical setup.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – retreats after touching a fresh high since May 19, around the $104.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday, though the downside seems limited. The commodity currently trades above the $102.00 round figure, still up for the third straight day, as supply disruption worries counter hopes for Middle East diplomacy.
In the latest developments, US Vice President JD Vance sent a direct letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, to restart peace negotiations. Furthermore, Qatar presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the US and Israel. Meanwhile, Iran's navy claimed Thursday that four oil tankers had struck sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, investors remain wary amid escalating hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which might continue to act as a tailwind for crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the black liquid retains a bullish bias following the recent breakout above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the recent advance within an upward-sloping parallel channel validates the positive outlook amid constructive momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers around 57 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, which together suggest that buyers still control the short-term tone, with the lower boundary of the channel at $100.49 acting as near-term underlying demand.
On the topside, the main resistance sits at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near $107.22, where a rejection would likely trigger consolidation or a corrective pullback. Meanwhile, crude oil prices would need to break below the channel support to signal a more meaningful deterioration of the bullish setup and set the stage for a fall to the 100-period EMA at $96.97.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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