WTI Price Forecast: Consolidates below mid-$96.00s as Mideast jitters favor bulls
- WTI bulls remain on the sidelines despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- The technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend.
- Sustained strength above the 78.6% Fibo. would reaffirm the near-term constructive outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the overnight modest bounce from the $94.65 area, or the weekly low, and remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity currently trades near the $96.35 region, down around 0.20% for the day, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since May 20, touched on Tuesday.
In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it had struck a Togo-flagged tanker that attempted an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said that he was approaching a major decision on whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran. This, in turn, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and might continue to act as a tailwind for crude oil prices.
Crude oil prices retain a bullish near-term bias above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July corrective fall. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a modestly positive reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 stays comfortably above neutral. Momentum indicators together hint that upward momentum is still constructive.
However, crude oil prices, so far, have been struggling to build on gains above the 78.6% Fibo. hurdle at $98.55. This is followed by the recent cycle high region at $107.11, which, if cleared, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. level at $91.82, ahead of the 50% retracement at $87.10 and the 100-day SMA clustered near $85.24, while deeper pullbacks would expose the 38.2% retracement at $82.38.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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