Gold edges lower to near $4,400 as Iran-US tensions counter support from tame US inflation
- Gold price trades with mild losses near $4,400 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Iran said there was no progress on reviving the interim peace deal with the US.
- Bets for a Fed rate hike fell following tame US CPI inflation data.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,400 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. However, the potential downside for the precious metal might be limited as a tame reading of US inflation eased pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates as soon as next month.
A senior Iranian official said that Washington and Tehran remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Gulf, adding that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the yellow metal as it raises oil-driven inflation fears. “With the Strait of Hormuz still shut, upside inflation risks will remain top of mind for the foreseeable future,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
The latest US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation moderated across a range of goods and services, cooling September Fed rate hike expectations. This, in turn, could help limit gold’s losses. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the CPI increased 3.4% YoY in July, versus 3.5% prior. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI increased 2.5% YoY in July, compared to 2.6% in June. Both readings came in line with expectations.
Interest-rate swaps are now pricing in nearly a 40.1% odds of a Fed hike in September, though the odds on an October move fell to about 60% from 75% a day earlier, with the next increase fully priced for December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold upside persists as US CPI fails to revive Fed hike bets
According to TD Securities, “precious metals maintain upside” as the latest US CPI release “did little to reignite the Fed hike pricing.” The bank notes that “recent price action highlights the gold market is increasingly not expecting hikes,” underscoring a supportive backdrop for bullion even as investors reassess the policy outlook in light of softer inflation dynamics.
Technical Analysis: Gold keeps a bullish vibe in the near term
In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as it extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and remains comfortably over the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line, suggesting a well-supported uptrend structure. Price is now pressing the upper Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.51 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that the latest advance is strong but increasingly stretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the Bollinger upper band at $4,410, where a sustained break would open the way to further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen near the current area, with the 100-day SMA at $4,390 acting as the first meaningful floor, ahead of the Bollinger middle band at $4,140; a deeper pullback toward the lower band at $3,865 would only come into focus if the bullish structure starts to unwind.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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