AUD/USD extends the rally to near 0.6450 amid weaker US Dollar, tariff uncertainty
- AUD/USD edges higher to near 0.6445 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- China's manufacturing sector continued to show signs of improvement in May.
- Traders await the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will be released later on Monday.
The AUD/USD pair extends its upside to around 0.6445 during the early Asian session on Monday. Tariff uncertainty continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders will take more cues from the release of the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is due later on Monday.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed that the nation’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, compared to 49.0 in the previous reading. The reading came in line with the market consensus in the reported month. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 in May versus April’s 50.4 figure. This figure was below the 50.6 expected. The Aussie remains firm in an immediate reaction to the mixed Chinese PMI data.
The concern that tariffs will slow growth and reignite inflation in the United States (US) is likely to weigh on the Greenback in the near term. “We're going to have some tariffing. Maybe not as exciting as was announced on April the 2nd, but we're still going to get it,” said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank NY Branch.
Furthermore, the passage of US President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill, which is expected to add trillions of USD to an already high fiscal deficit, prompted traders to lean on assets outside the US in the so-called “Sell America” trade. The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI will be the highlight on Monday. If the report showed a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses and create a headwind for the pair.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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