GBP/USD: Poised to buckle under the weight of its own success?
- GBP/USD snapped a six-day win streak on Tuesday, falling back after a flubbed stretch for 1.3600.
- US Dollar strength is largely behind the near-term bearish flip in GBP/USD flows.
- UK data remains limited through this week, but high-impact US inflation figures loom ahead.
GBP/USD pared recent gains on Tuesday, snapping a six-day win streak and knocking price action away from the 1.3600 handle after the pair tapped fresh multi-year highs this week. Another tariff-talk-fueled upswing in broad-market investor sentiment bolstered the US Dollar (USD), sparked by the Trump administration once again stepping back from its own tariff threats.
The Bank of England (BoE) is looking less likely to deliver as many rate cuts as many had expected earlier in the year, helping to bolster the Pound Sterling into its highest prices against the Greenback since early 2022. Further appearances from BoE policymakers are expected over the rest of the week, but the narrative is not expected to change much.
US President Trump recently mused via social media about imposing an additional 50% across-the-board tariff on all imports from the European Union (EU) beginning on June 1. However, President Trump has already walked back his own tariff threat, following a pattern that has become increasingly familiar to investors, and pushed the 50% EU tariff deadline back to July 9.
The remainder of the week will be heavy on the US side. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes will be published on Wednesday, with US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slated for Thursday. Friday will wrap up the trading week with US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation data for April, and markets are hoping for a continued easing in key inflation metrics before the fallout from the Trump administration’s tariff policies begins to leak into headline datasets.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD closed flat or higher for six straight sessions over the past week and a bit, coming within inches of reclaiming the 1.3600 handle. However, markets had to blow off pressure, and Cable has eased back toward the 1.3500 region heading into the midweek.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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