Canadian Dollar edges lower as US launches new wave of strikes against Iran
- USD/CAD drifts higher to around 1.4165 in Monday’s Asian session.
- The US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran aimed at ‘degrading’ the military.
- The BoC is likely to hold the rate steady on Wednesday.
The USD/CAD pair gains traction to near 1.4165, snapping the four-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid lingering tensions regarding the US-Iran conflict. The US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be the highlight later on Tuesday.
The US military carried out multiple attacks across Iran, saying they were aimed at “degrading” Tehran’s ability to disrupt commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, per Bloomberg. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) then launched retaliatory drone and missile assaults on US allies across the Middle East, including Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan.
Over the weekend, Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz would now be closed “until further notice.” Signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback against the CAD in the near term.
On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report could provide some support to the Loonie. Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed that Canada's economy added 18.2K jobs in June, continuing the momentum in the job market seen the month before. This figure followed a rise of 87.8K in May and was above the market consensus of 10K. The Unemployment Rate fell to 6.5% in June from 6.6% in May, better than the expectation of 6.6%.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% at its July policy meeting on Wednesday and keep it there well into next year as price pressures remain largely contained and the economy gradually recovers, a Reuters poll showed.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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