Swiss Franc holds losses as fresh US-Iran tensions support the US Dollar
- USD/CHF remains steady above 0.8050 after rallying nearly 0.7% in the last three days.
- Trump's comments suggesting the end of the US-Iran ceasefire have soured market sentiment.
- The Swiss Franc was hit earlier this week as Switzerland's unemployment rose to a nearly five-year high.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) nurses minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday but is depreciating nearly 0.7% so far this week. The USD/CHF pair has steadied at the upper range of the 0.8000s, buoyed by investors’ concern about the resumption of hostilities in Iran and markets' cautiousness ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
US President Donald Trump rattled markets earlier on the day, affirming at the NATO summit in Turkey that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is over and that he does not want to deal with Tehran any more, as “they’re scum”.
These comments follow a series of reciprocal attacks earlier on the day and the US revocation of Iran’s authorisation to export crude. The market reaction has been moderate so far, but has provided some support to the Greenback to pick up against most peers, yet within previous ranges.
The Swiss Franc was hit earlier this week, as Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate rose unexpectedly to a nearly five-year high at 3.1% in June, from 3% in May,
Later on the day, the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting are likely to provide some distraction from the geopolitical scenario. Investors will be eager for hints about the bank’s hiking calendar, following the hawkish tone of the Fed’s latest statement, although they will have to sharpen their analytical talents, due to Chairman Kevin Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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