NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bears eye YTD low at 0.5680 amid US Dollar’s strength

• NZD/USD extends losses to 0.5725, approaching the year-to-date low of 0.5680.
• The US Dollar has been boosted by rising bets on Fed rate hikes later in the year.
• The New Zealand Dollar remains vulnerable while below 0.5800.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is showing the worst performance among major currencies on Friday, extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5724 lows so far, with the year-to-date low of 0.5781 coming closer. The pair is on track for a 1.65% weekly decline, as Fed hiking bets have offset investors' enthusiasm about the US-Iran trade deal

The US Dollar has been boosted this week by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish-leaning stance and the new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s commitment to bring inflationary pressure to heel. Futures markets are pricing a 77% chance that the Fed will hike rates in October, from less than 40% one week before, and a nearly 90% chance of at least one rate hike before the end of the year. 

In the geopolitical front, Oil tankers are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is fuelling a moderate risk appètite on Friday. Investors, however, are pondering the soundness of the peace deal, as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon continue, and US Vice President JD Vance has delayed the talks with Iranian representatives scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.

Technical Analysis: Kiwi remains vulnerable while below 0.5800

The technical picture shows the NZD/USD extending a bearish near-term bias with momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart deep into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 33, just above oversold levels, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines stuck below zero.

Bears have found some support at 0.5724, but technical indicators suggest that rallies are likely to find sellers. Further down, the target is the mentioned 2026 low, near 0.5680. Below that level, there is no clear support until the November 2025 low, at the 0.5580 area

On the topside, recovery attempts might face resistance at the intra-day high of 0.5775. The pair should break Thursday's high in the 0.5800 area and the trendline resistance from late May highs, now around 0.5810, to ease downside pressure and look towards the June 15 high, at 0.5864.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)