Euro posts modest gains above 1.1600, Middle East tensions curb upside
- EUR/USD trades with mild gains near 1.1635 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Renewed tensions in the Middle East could weigh on the Euro as the riskier asset.
- ECB’s Schnabel warned that shock can no longer be ignored.
The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1635 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the potential upside might be limited, as Iran announced a halt to US negotiations and a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could prompt risk-off sentiment. The preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) from the Eurozone will be released later on Tuesday.
Iranian negotiators will stop exchanging messages with the United States (US) through intermediaries, and Iran will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for ongoing ceasefire violations, per CNBC. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and asked him not to proceed with a major raid on Beirut, and that Israeli troops were turned around.
However, Netanyahu contradicts Trump, emphasizing that he will continue operating against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Escalating Middle East conflicts could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Across the pond, the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) could provide some support to the shared currency. ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday that the central bank can no longer overlook the inflationary impact of the conflict in Iran, as price pressures have spread beyond the energy sector and the risk of unanchored inflation expectations has risen.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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