Australian Dollar retreats from session peak as US PPI print beats sharply
- The 2026/27 budget delivered a $31.5bn deficit, with major housing reforms and a $10bn fuel security package.
- Q1 WPI rose 0.8% QoQ as expected, with Thursday's consumer inflation expectations survey next in focus.
- US PPI surged 1.4% MoM in April against a 0.5% consensus, pushing the YoY rate to 6% and weighing on risk appetite.
AUD/USD gained roughly 0.3% on Wednesday, climbing through the session before peaking just below the recent cycle highs and pulling back into the close. The intraday structure traced a steady grind higher from the Asian open through New York trade, followed by a pullback from the day's peak that left the pair holding a net gain.
Australia's 2026/27 federal budget, delivered on Tuesday by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, posted an underlying cash deficit of A$31.5 billion for the year, modestly improved from mid-year projections. The headline policy measures included the scrapping of negative gearing and the replacement of the capital gains tax (CGT) discount with indexation, both grandfathered, alongside an A$10 billion fuel security package in direct response to the Iran-related supply shock. Wednesday's Wage Price Index (WPI) for the first quarter came in at 0.8% QoQ, matching both the consensus and the prior-period reading; the annual pace eased slightly but remained elevated. Thursday's consumer inflation expectations survey from the Melbourne Institute is the next scheduled domestic catalyst.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April came in sharply higher than expected, with the headline MoM print at 1.4% against a 0.5% consensus and the YoY rate rising to 6.0%, well above the 4.9% forecast; core PPI excluding food and energy rose 1.0% MoM against a 0.3% estimate. The hot figures drove a surge in the US Dollar that reversed the session's advance before a partial recovery closed the gap. The broader backdrop continues to be shaped by the US-Iran conflict: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping global energy prices elevated, and US President Donald Trump described Iran's latest ceasefire response as unacceptable. US retail sales and initial jobless claims on Thursday provide the next major USD-side inputs.
AUD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7258, holding a mild bullish bias as it stays above the day’s open at 0.7240. The price action suggests intraday dip-buying interest, even as the latest Stochastic RSI reading around 9.54 shows deeply oversold conditions that could limit immediate downside and favor a near-term bounce or consolidation rather than an outright reversal lower.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 0.7240 day-open level, where buyers are likely to defend the short-term up-move. With no nearby technical resistance levels highlighted by moving averages or other structures in this timeframe, the pair’s next topside hurdles are expected to emerge only as price extends higher, leaving short-term direction driven mainly by how spot reacts around the 0.7240 support zone.
In the four-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7258. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as price trades well above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7150, keeping the broader four-hour uptrend supported. The Stochastic RSI around 63 leans bullish without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting upside momentum is still present but not stretched.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 0.7258 area as an immediate intraday pivot, with stronger structural demand emerging at the 200-period EMA near 0.7150, where buyers have room to defend the broader bullish structure. With no nearby technical resistance levels highlighted by the current setup, a sustained hold above these supports would keep the path of least resistance tilted to the upside while momentum remains constructive.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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