USD/CAD reaches seven-month highs above 1.4100 amid lower crude Oil prices
- USD/CAD marked a seven-month high of 1.4119 on Wednesday.
- The Canadian Dollar weakened as declining oil prices, driven by a sharp rise in US inventories, heightened oversupply concerns.
- The US Dollar could face challenges amid the ongoing US government shutdown.
USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.4110 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair gains ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges amid weakening Oil prices. It is important to note that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around $60.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices fall as a sharp rise in inventories intensifies concerns about oversupply. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock jumped by 6.5 million barrels last week, far surpassing expectations for a 2.4-million-barrel draw and recording the largest weekly increase since early July.
The upside of the USD/CAD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) struggles due to the ongoing US government shutdown. The deadlock has now entered its sixth week and is poised to become the longest federal funding lapse in US history after the Senate once again failed to pass a short-term funding bill. The most recent attempt to resolve the standoff, Republican-backed temporary legislation, was rejected by the Senate for the 14th time on Tuesday.
However, the Greenback received support from the cautious sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance for December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated during last week’s post-meeting press conference that another rate cut in December remains uncertain. Powell also cautioned that policymakers might need to adopt a wait-and-see stance until the release of new official data resumes.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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