EUR/JPY treads water above 176.00 ahead of speeches from ECB officials
- EUR/JPY remains steady due to market caution ahead of ECB officials’ speeches.
- The ECB is set to enter its pre-meeting blackout period on Thursday ahead of next week’s policy decision.
- Japanese Yen gains as domestic trade deficit narrowed in September.
EUR/JPY moves little after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 176.20 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair steadies as traders adopt caution ahead of a series of speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials this week for clues on the policy outlook.
The ECB will enter its pre-meeting blackout period on Thursday ahead of next week’s policy decision. Traders have increased bets on monetary easing, fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by July 2026.
The EUR/JPY cross may face challenges as the Japanese Yen (JPY) advances following the release of Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total data. Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported a trade deficit of JPY 234.6 billion in September, narrowing slightly from August’s deficit of JPY 242.8 billion (revised from -242.5) but falling short of market expectations for a JPY 22.0 billion surplus.
Japan’s Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, the first increase since April, though slightly below the projected 4.6% gain. Meanwhile, Imports jumped 3.3% to an eight-month high, marking their first rise in three months and exceeding forecasts for a modest 0.6% increase.
Traders remain cautious after dovish Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s first female Prime Minister on Tuesday. Takaichi vowed to strengthen the nation’s economy and defense capabilities, as well as enhance relations with the US. Her victory came after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) allied with the Japan Innovation Party and reportedly signed an agreement over the weekend to form a coalition government.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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