Nomura’s Andrzej Szczepaniak, George Buckley and Josie Anderson expect the ECB to keep the depo rate at 2.50% on 29 October, maintaining current quantitative tightening guidance.
Societe Generale analysts highlight that SAGBs outperformed and the ZAR strengthened after South Africa’s mini‑budget, although some gains were surrendered the following morning. The deficit target for 2026/27 was trimmed to 3.9% of GDP, issuance was reduced, and a bond buyback programme announced, with the government signalling a proposed fiscal anchor and raising the prospect of a medium‑term return to IG status.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounds on Thursday as ongoing tensions in the Middle East keep supply risks elevated, maintaining a significant geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $99, hovering near five-week highs and up 1.40% on the day.