AI Power Stocks Just Fell 6.3% to 9.3% on Financing Fears. SpaceX Just Said New Compute Pays Back in Under a Year.

On its Oct. 20 third-quarter earnings call, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) said that new compute investments are paying for themselves in under a year. But GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) recently fell as much as 9.3% and Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) dropped 6.3% on financing fears.

GE Vernova's slide followed analyst target cuts and a partly debt-funded $9 billion acquisition. Bloom Energy's drop followed negative free cash flow (FCF) last quarter, despite record revenue.

That could make SpaceX an interesting outlier in a more cautious market.

Image source: Getty Images.

Here's what management said about how quickly new compute pays back.

SpaceX says new compute pays for itself in under a year

During that call, Elon Musk and his management team offered upbeat guidance on the company's AI business.

According to the company's CFO, new compute deployments are currently seeing a payback period of less than a year. He also noted that pricing was tracking slightly above the high end of the $30-$50 per-watt range discussed in the previous quarter.

That's an encouraging development in an industry where investors are more concerned about the enormous investments required for the AI build-out. A shorter payback period means companies can recover their initial investment much faster, allowing them to reinvest capital in additional capacity rather than relying on external financing.

Management also said it was seeing strong customer interest in compute capacity, with cloud service agreements providing an additional revenue stream. Plus, it said the company will remain demand-led rather than simply building infrastructure without considering customer needs, noting that deployment decisions would be aligned with near-term demand.

Beyond that, what makes SpaceX interesting is that its AI ambitions are supported by several businesses. While Starlink provides a growing connectivity business, its expanding AI business creates opportunities to monetize both its cloud capacity and AI products. The company is also investing in its own semiconductor capabilities through its planned Terafab project, with management outlining a long-term roadmap toward high-volume chip production.

That should put the company in a better position as it expands further into AI.

SpaceX is building an AI business alongside Starlink

These days, SpaceX's Super Intelligence segment is becoming a major contributor to the business. Third-quarter segment revenue reached $7.6 billion, supported by new cloud service agreements, additional compute capacity, and the Cursor acquisition.

That combination gives the company a strong edge, providing several ways to monetize its AI infrastructure. It can generate revenue through external cloud customers while also using its compute capacity to develop and run its own AI products.

Notably, the company ended the third quarter with around 1.7 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity and is targeting between 2.5 and 3 gigawatts by the end of the fourth quarter. Musk also discussed a much larger expansion for the following year. He suggested that the company could potentially bring about 10 gigawatts of additional compute online, or roughly 13 gigawatts in total.

Despite its impressive growth, SpaceX's expansion requires substantial capital. The company spent $19.6 billion on capital expenditures (capex) during the third quarter and guided for between $35 billion and $40 billion in the fourth quarter. That creates significant execution and financing risks if expected demand or compute pricing weakens.

A forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 50 times suggests that investors are pricing in meaningful future growth. That's a premium valuation, and the company will need to deliver strong earnings growth to justify its share price. By comparison, GE Vernova's forward P/E is about 38, and Bloom Energy's is about 37.

Still, the company's claim about the relatively short payback period on new compute is encouraging. And as fears about financing weigh on AI power stocks, SpaceX is making a stronger case for how quickly its AI infrastructure can pay for itself.

Why SpaceX could be better positioned in the AI boom

SpaceX is making a compelling case that its new compute can generate returns much faster than investors might expect. Its relatively shorter payback claim, combined with Starlink's growth and AI ambitions, makes it an interesting long-term investment case. Although the stock trades at a premium, if SpaceX can execute its ambitious expansion plans, its growth could deliver massive upside.

Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy and GE Vernova. The Motley Fool recommends Space Exploration Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.